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shubhxho/
cmf-2

Name: cmf-2
Availability: InStock

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CMF-2

50.5M dual-stream model for 15-minute Polymarket crypto binaries.

Fast tape is Binance USDT-M. Slow tape is the Polymarket CLOB. The policy buys a token only when calibrated P(resolve UP) clears the displayed offer.

Code: github.com/shubhxho/polymarket-model
Card: shubhxho.github.io/polymarket-model
Windows: shubhxho/cmf-15m-binance

Files

file	what
`fusion.safetensors`	CMF-2 weights, 202 MB F32
`model.json`	architecture + train config
`metrics.json`	last held-out eval
`cmf2-hero.png` / `cmf2-eval.png` / `cmf2-arch.png`	launch cards

Held-out simulator (80 episodes)

Same book for every policy. Share PnL after paying bid/ask. Not live Polymarket fills.

policy	mean PnL	Sharpe	trades/ep	P(UP)
CMF-2	+1.13	2.94	1.24	92.3%
lag oracle	+1.76	4.19	0.99	—
random	−7.40	−44.4	60.7	—

Train was 3.57 hours on Apple Silicon MLX (chronological split, EMA, val/best-ckpt, utility fine-tune, temperature scale). About 64% of oracle PnL.

Load

bash

uv pip install huggingface_hub
hf download shubhxho/cmf-2 --local-dir checkpoints

python

from pathlib import Path
from cmf.io import load_bundle

model, cfg = load_bundle(Path("checkpoints"))

Paper is default. Live CLOB V2 needs CMF_LIVE=1 and an explicit arm.

What this is not

Planted-lag simulator. Assumes you can hit the quote you see. Not a live Sharpe and not a claim that 92% expiry accuracy transfers to production 15-minute markets.