This repository contains the code and resources for FOXES, a project developed as part of the Frontier Development Lab's Heliolab 2025!

Model / Data:

The solar soft X-ray (SXR) irradiance is a long-standing proxy of solar activity, used for the classification of flare strength. As a result, the flare class, along with the SXR light curve, are routinely used as the primary input to many forecasting methods, from coronal mass ejection speed to energetic particle output. However, the SXR irradiance lacks spatial information leading to dubious classification during periods of high activity, and is applicable only for observations from Earth orbit, hindering forecasting for other places in the heliosphere. This work introduces the Framework for Operational X-ray Emission Synthesis (FOXES), a Vision Transformer-based approach for translating Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) spatially-resolved observations into SXR irradiance predictions. The model produces two outputs: (1) a global SXR flux prediction and (2) per-patch flux contributions, which offer a spatially resolved interpretation of where the model attributes SXR emission. This paves the way for EUV-based flare detection to be extended beyond Earth's line of sight, allowing for a more comprehensive and reliable flare catalog to support robust, scalable, and real-time forecasting, extending our monitoring into a true multiviewpoint system.

Team: Griffin Goodwin, Alison March, Jayant Biradar, Christopher Schirninger, Robert Jarolim, Angelos Vourlidas, Viacheslav Sadykov, Lorien Pratt

This repository covers the full loop: getting data, training, running inference, and evaluating a FOXES model.

FOXES is run in four steps: get data, inference (run a checkpoint over your data), evaluation (score the predictions and generate plots), and optionally training your own model. All are driven by a YAML config — edit the config, then run the script.

Recommended: stream the released dataset straight from Hugging Face Hub into the paired .npy layout inference expects — no separate processing step:

Edit download/hf_download_config.yaml first to set aia_dir/sxr_dir, which splits to pull, and whether to subsample.

If you've already downloaded the HF parquet files locally instead of streaming, set local_parquet_dir in that same config to the root folder containing your per-split subdirs (train/, validation/ or val/, test/) — streaming and the HF Hub login are skipped entirely in that case.

Advanced: to acquire and process raw data yourself instead, edit and run the two download configs, then the one dataset-build config, in order:

data/build_dataset.py runs the full raw-to-processed pipeline in one command (clean AIA → convert AIA → combine GOES → align AIA/SXR); each step can be skipped via the steps: block in its config if you've already run it. Inference/evaluation just need the flat output of that — training needs two more things, both off by default and only relevant if you're training:

Point inference.py at a folder of paired .npy files, one file per timestamp:

Timestamps are matched by filename between aia_dir and sxr_dir — there's no required subfolder name (no train/, val/, or test/). Just point the config at whichever folder holds the data you want to run.

If you don't have ground-truth SXR data (e.g. scoring new/live data), set prediction_only: "true" in the config and data.sxr_dir is ignored entirely.

Three released checkpoints are included under forecasting/trained_weights_and_normalization/, differing only in the self-attention mask they were trained with (see mask_mode in training/train_config.yaml) — each checkpoint carries its own mask, so nothing else needs to change to switch between them, just checkpoint_path:

Edit forecasting/inference_config.yaml:

Then run:

This writes output_path (a CSV of timestamp/prediction/groundtruth). Per-patch flux contribution maps and per-image attention weights are saved automatically alongside it whenever flux_path / weight_path are set in the config — set model_params.no_flux: true or model_params.no_weights: true to skip either.

Edit forecasting/evaluation_config.yaml to point at the predictions CSV and data directories, then run:

This computes metrics (MSE, MAE, R²) and generates plots under evaluation.output_dir.

Unlike inference, training expects aia_dir/sxr_dir each to have train/, val/, and test/ subfolders of paired .npy files — exactly what data/build_dataset.py and the Hugging Face download path produce.

Edit training/train_config.yaml:

Then run:

Training logs to Weights & Biases (predicted-vs-true SXR plots and attention map visualizations each validation epoch — see training/callbacks.py) and saves the top 10 checkpoints by validation loss to data.checkpoints_dir, ready to point forecasting/inference_config.yaml at.

If you use this code or data in your work, please cite:

This work is a research product of Heliolab (heliolab.ai), an initiative of the Frontier Development Lab (FDL.ai). FDL is a public–private partnership between NASA, Trillium Technologies (trillium.tech), and commercial AI partners including Google Cloud and NVIDIA. Heliolab was designed, delivered, and managed by Trillium Technologies Inc., a research and development company focused on intelligent systems and collaborative communities for Heliophysics, planetary stewardship and space exploration. We gratefully acknowledge Google Cloud for extensive computational resources and NVIDIA Corporation. This material is based upon work supported by NASA under award number No. 80GSFC23CA040. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Large language models were used as brainstorming tools to discuss possible training strategies and methodological considerations. The authors retained full responsibility for all research decisions, interpretations, and conclusions presented in this work.