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danishritonga/
karhutla

Name: karhutla
Availability: InStock

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Karhutla Riau — LightGBM operational checkpoint

Production default model for the Riau peatland-fire early-warning system.

Model

model_lgbm_operational.joblib — LightGBM classifier, operational regime (22 channels, including hotspot_count_lag fire history). Trained 2019–2021, validated 2022, tested 2023 (50k training samples).

Metric	Value
PR-AUC	0.712
F1	0.625
Recall	0.583
ROC-AUC	0.879
F1 threshold	0.420

Files

File	Purpose
`model_lgbm_operational.joblib`	LightGBM classifier (joblib)
`checkpoint_operational.json`	sidecar: `norm_stats`, `tab_names`, `channels`, best thresholds
`comparison_table_operational.csv`	full model comparison on the operational regime
`shap_importance_operational.png`	SHAP feature importance
`predictions.parquet`	per-cell, per-horizon risk (columns `cell_idx`, `day`, `probability`) — consumed by the Space backend

Consumption

The HuggingFace Space backend (danishritonga/karhutla space) fetches predictions.parquet at runtime (10-min TTL cache) and falls back to simulation mode if fetch/schema validation fails. Set HF_MODEL_REPO=danishritonga/karhutla-risk-model on the Space.