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byabasaija/
uganda-food-prices-model

Name: uganda-food-prices-model
Availability: InStock

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Uganda Maize Price Prediction Model

Predicts next month's maize retail price at Owino market, Kampala, Uganda.

Model Details

Algorithm: Random Forest (200 trees)
Version: v3
Train period: July 2017 – December 2023
Test period: January 2024 – April 2025
MAE: 224 UGX/kg on test set

Features

Feature	Description
price_lag_1	Retail price last month
price_lag_2	Retail price 2 months ago
price_lag_3	Retail price 3 months ago
rolling_mean_3	Average price over last 3 months
rolling_mean_6	Average price over last 6 months
month	Calendar month (seasonality)
year	Calendar year (trend)
food_cpi	Uganda maize-specific CPI (UBOS)

Training Data

Prices: byabasaija/uganda-maize-prices — WFP food price data, Owino market, retail prices averaged per month
CPI: byabasaija/uganda-food-cpi — Uganda maize-specific CPI from UBOS (whole grain maize + maize flour index)

Performance

Model	MAE (UGX/kg)
Naive baseline (rolling mean 3)	196
This model (v3, maize CPI)	224
V1 (no CPI)	282
V2 (broad food CPI)	658

Usage

python

import joblib
import pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download

model_path = hf_hub_download(repo_id="byabasaija/uganda-food-prices-model", filename="maize_price_model_v3.pkl")
model = joblib.load(model_path)

Limitations

Trained on Owino market (Kampala) retail prices only
CPI data available from July 2017 — training window limited
Does not account for rainfall, fuel prices, or exchange rates (planned)
Predicts one month ahead only

Built By

Pascal Byabasaija