msme-payment-outcome-predictor-lightgbm – AI Model by abhinavdread | AlphaNeural AI

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abhinavdread/
msme-payment-outcome-predictor-lightgbm

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tabular-classification

dispute-resolution

calibrated-probabilities

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MSME Payment Outcome Predictor (LightGBM)

Overview

This model predicts the probabilistic outcome of MSME payment disputes:

Win
Settlement
Escalation to MSEFC

The model outputs calibrated probabilities for each outcome.

Model Architecture

Algorithm: LightGBM (Gradient Boosted Decision Trees)
Calibration: Isotonic Regression (CalibratedClassifierCV)
Preprocessing:
- OneHotEncoding (categorical features)
- Numeric features passthrough
- Class balancing enabled

Input Features

Feature	Type
claim_amount	float
delay_days	float
buyer_type	categorical (govt/private)
contract_present	binary
industry_sector	categorical
claim_imputed	binary
delay_imputed	binary

Output Format

json

{
  "predicted_label": "win",
  "probabilities": {
    "win": 0.59,
    "settlement": 0.05,
    "escalation": 0.35
  }
}

Performance Metrics

Primary metric: AUC-ROC (macro) ≈ 0.72
Balanced Accuracy ≈ 0.63
F1 Macro ≈ 0.61

Intended Use

Legal risk scoring
MSME advisory tools
Research prototype
Decision support systems

Limitations

Based on structured extracted data only
Does not include full legal document text
Not intended for judicial automation