Salama Health: Climate Disruption Index Models
Trained models for predicting climate-driven health facility disruptions in South Sudan, 28 days in advance.
What These Models Do
These models power the Climate Disruption Index (CDI), a composite score between 0 and 1 assigned to each Primary Health Care Centre across Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile states in South Sudan.
The CDI estimates the probability that a facility will be cut off from the communities it serves due to flooding, road damage, cold chain failure, or population displacement within the next 28 days.
CDI scores feed into the Immunisation Gap Score (IGS) which ranks individual children by visit urgency for community health workers.
Performance
| Model | OOF AUC | Ensemble Weight |
|---|
| XGBoost | 1.0 | 0.341 |
| Random Forest | 0.9548 | 0.3256 |
| LSTM | 0.9775 | 0.3334 |
| Ensemble | nan | |
CDI Formula
CDI = 0.35 x P(flood) + 0.30 x P(cutoff) + 0.20 x P(CCF) + 0.15 x P(disp)
Pilot Coverage
- 93 Primary Health Care Centres
- Unity, Jonglei, and Upper Nile states, South Sudan
- 9,617 training observations, 2021 to 2024
- Top facility: NHIAL DIU PHCC, Rubkona County, Unity State, CDI 0.501
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