SWM-Bench is the benchmark for Social World Models (SWM): predicting how a
prediction market's collective belief (its price) shifts in response to news, and
which news drives the shift. It aggregates Polymarket and Kalshi markets
(Dec 2022 – Jan 2026) with the news available before each belief update, sampled
toward volatility-significant (news-driven) moves.
Code:
https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/social-world-modelThe dataset has three parts:… See the full description on the dataset page:
https://huggingface.co/datasets/ulab-ai/swm-bench.
