Chronos-Bolt is an optimized version of the Chronos family, designed for faster inference while maintaining accuracy. It uses an optimized T5 architecture with improved tokenization and reduced computational overhead.

Attribute	Value
Parameters	205M
Architecture	T5 Optimized (Bolt)
Original Repo	amazon/chronos-bolt-base
Paper	Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series
Task	Time Series Forecasting

Usage with TS Arena

python

import ts_arena

# Load model
model = ts_arena.load_model("chronos-bolt-base")

# Generate forecasts
import numpy as np
context = np.random.randn(96)  # 96 timesteps of history
output = model.predict(context, prediction_length=24, num_samples=20)

# Access results
print(output.predictions.shape)      # Point forecasts (median)
print(output.quantiles[0.5].shape)   # Median forecast
print(output.quantiles[0.1].shape)   # 10th percentile
print(output.quantiles[0.9].shape)   # 90th percentile

Direct Usage with Chronos

python

from chronos import ChronosPipeline
import torch

pipeline = ChronosPipeline.from_pretrained(
    "amazon/chronos-bolt-base",
    device_map="cuda",
    torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16,
)

context = torch.randn(1, 96)  # (batch, time)
forecast = pipeline.predict(context, prediction_length=24, num_samples=20)

Evaluation Results

ETTh1 Dataset (context=96, horizon=96)

Metric	Value
MSE	4.37
MAE	1.66
RMSE	2.09

Features

Zero-shot forecasting: No training required
Probabilistic forecasts: Returns samples and quantiles
Variable horizons: Supports different prediction lengths
Multivariate support: Processes each channel independently

Limitations

Univariate model (multivariate handled channel-by-channel)
No exogenous variable support
Recommended max prediction length: 64

Citation

bibtex

@article{ansari2024chronos,
  title={Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series},
  author={Ansari, Abdul Fatir and Stella, Lorenzo and Turkmen, Caner and Zhang, Xiyuan and others},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2403.07815},
  year={2024}
}

License

Apache-2.0 (following the original Chronos license)

ts-arena/chronos_bolt_base_205m_forecasting

chronos_bolt_base_205m_forecasting

Model Description