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| Run ID | 20260419_211104 |
| Base model | autogluon/chronos-bolt-base |
| Task | Next-lap time regression (ms) within a stint |
| Repository | pablog86/oaa2 |
f1-race-data/latest.parquet Parquet produced by the Airflow ingestion DAG (SPEC-008/SPEC-009).| Train / val seasons | [2022, 2023] |
| Test seasons | [2024] |
| Session types | RACE |
| Object ETag | a6b0d597d06b934476b5e77a928c9659 |
| Last modified | 2026-04-19T04:22:53+00:00 |
lap_time_ex_pit_ms) within the current stint, plus the covariates listed below.| Feature | Type |
|---|---|
lap_time_ex_pit_ms (context window) | Target signal — sliding window of pit-stop-corrected lap times within the current stint |
circuit_id | Static |
constructor_id | Static |
grid_position | Static |
circuit_season_max_laps | Static |
lap, lap_position, lap_in_race_pct | Dynamic observed |
lap_in_stint, is_pit_out_lap, is_pit_in_lap | Dynamic observed |
cumulative_pit_count, laps_since_last_pit | Dynamic observed |
elapsed_race_time_ms | Dynamic observed |
lag_1/2/3_lap_time_ex_pit_ms | Historical |
rolling_mean_3/5_lap_time_ex_pit_ms | Historical |
rolling_std_3_lap_time_ex_pit_ms | Historical |
delta_vs_prev_lap_ex_pit_ms | Historical |
delta_vs_rolling_mean_3_ex_pit_ms | Historical |
| Hyperparameter | Value |
|---|---|
model_id | autogluon/chronos-bolt-base |
learning_rate | 0.0001 |
batch_size | 32 |
max_epochs | 15 |
patience | 3 |
weight_decay | 0.0001 |
gradient_clip_val | 1.0 |
context_length | 20 |
prediction_length | 1 |
loss_function | huber |
random_seed | 42 |
| Early stopping at epoch | 8 / 15 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| MAE (ms) | 8377.9 |
| RMSE (ms) | 80676.4 |
| MAPE (%) | 8.07 |
| Within ±500 ms (%) | 55.7 |
| Within ±1000 ms (%) | 70.7 |
| Samples | 8873 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| MAE (ms) | 4619.8 |
| RMSE (ms) | 55007.5 |
| MAPE (%) | 4.54 |
| Within ±500 ms (%) | 60.3 |
| Within ±1000 ms (%) | 75.6 |
| Samples | 25241 |
| Segment | mae (ms) | mape (%) | pct_within_500ms | n_samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4619.8 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 25241 |
| Segment | mae (ms) | mape (%) | pct_within_500ms | n_samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| long (>30) | 4393.4 | 4.5 | 62.0 | 9235 |
| medium (15–30) | 3189.5 | 3.3 | 61.8 | 12629 |
| short (<15) | 10587.5 | 9.2 | 50.3 | 3377 |
| Metric | Model | last_lap | rolling_mean_3 | rolling_mean_5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAE (ms) | 4619.8 | 5167.4 | 3152.9 | 2975.1 |
| MAPE (%) | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Within ±500 ms (%) | 60.3 | 58.7 | 62.4 | 59.5 |
| run_id | model | val MAE (ms) | test MAE (ms) | test MAPE (%) | within ±500 ms (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20260419_211104 | chronos-bolt-base | 8377.9 | 4619.8 | 4.54 | 60.3 |
| Artifact | Path in this repo |
|---|---|
| Dataset manifest | dataset_manifest/20260419_211104.json |
| Run metadata (metrics + config) | runs/20260419_211104.json |
| TensorBoard logs | tensorboard/20260419_211104/ |